Pre-poll voting

It has now been four days since the election and we still have no idea of who is to govern the State. Even the counting of absentee, postal and pre-poll voting on Tuesday has not broken Saturday’s deadlock.  The seat of Mitchell is still the one that may decide if Labor can form government in their own right, but even the Labor Party are conceding they need to persuade the two independents, Greg Brock and Bob Such to support their quest for a fourth term in government. I would be surprised if Labor managed to form minority government, even considering the anger of Bob Such at the Liberal party’s dirty campaign in the his seat of Fisher.

Saturday’s result shows that two changes are needed to the South Australian system. Firstly, like they are at Federal level, pre-poll votes should be counted on the night of the election, not held over until the counting of postal votes the following week. With the large number of pre poll votes at the election, some of the close seats could have been decided on election night if pre polls were counted, avoiding the state of confusion the state currently finds itself in.

Secondly, the requirements to be eligible to cast a pre-poll vote must be made tougher. Currently a person does not need any proof of an inability to attend a polling venue on Election Day to cast a vote prior to the day. An election is about which party is the most popular on the day that is set down as voting day, in this case March 15, not the days or the week leading up to it. An election is a month to six week long campaign, with its ups and downs and controversies and different parties taking the upper hand at different points in the process. By voting early, they are missing out on all these aspects and are not getting the entire picture of the parties and candidates policies. The Liberal Party did not release its budget outlook until the day before the poll, so thousands of South Australians cast their vote with no knowledge of where the Liberal Party were going to spend their taxes. Maybe that is why the conservatives are expected to do so well in pre-poll ballots.

In future elections it must be made much tougher for people to vote early.  Some sort of proof, whether it is a work schedule, an airline ticket or a hotel booking, must be provided for someone to have the ability to enter their ballot prior to the day. Elections are about who the public want to govern ON ELECTION DAY. Not up to a month before.

Who will win

With only two days to go before South Australian's head to the polls, many people are wondering what the election is all about. So if you are meeting mates to watch the contest and want to look intelligent, or just want to spend Friday in the office making yourself look like you have some idea about politics. Have a look at my idiots guide to every seat in Saturday's contest, with info on the candidates and some quirky facts that will make you look very impressive to the cute blonde across the room.

Set to see the end of the 12 years of Labor rule, read below why the newspaper editors will be looking for a headline to match "Rannslide" which headed every Advertiser article following the 2006 election.

Coming up later will be a drinking game guide for anyone, who needs to get plastered to consider the idea of watching the ABC for five hours straight.

Adelaide:

Rachel Sanderson won this for the Libs in 2010, when former Lord Mayor Joan Lomax-Smith was on the nose. The Labor party focused on the marginal seats to ensure they held onto power and Lomax-Smith ended up with a 10 per cent swing against her losing to Rachel Sanderson. Since redistributions in the 90s it should really be a Labor seat, but with a margin of 4.2 to the Libs and the general trend to the Libs, it will be a positive start for them.

Facts to impress your mates: The 14.7 per cent swing against Labor incumbent Jane Lomax-Smith in 2010 was the second biggest in the state.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 1 – Labor 0

 

 

Ashford:

This is the first of four key marginal seats that the Liberals will need to win to gain power.  The redistributions here have absolutely killed Labor. In the “Rannslide” of 2006, there was a 12 per cent swing to Labor and then they gave it all back in 2010 with a 10 per cent swing against the Government. Incumbent Steph Key was a Minister in first Rann government, but lost out when more MPs came on board in 2006. Terina Monteagle (what a name!) is the Liberal candidate. I can’t pick this one with all the swings from the last two elections, but with the new boundaries helping the Liberals and a general swing set to head their way, I am giving it to Monteagle.

Facts to impress your mates: The Greens Christiana Griffith is worth looking at.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 2- Labor 0

 

 

Bragg:

This is a seat that starts in the inner city on Greenhill Rd and heads all the way to Crafers. Vikki Chapman has been there for 12 years and the lady who reminds everybody of the lady around town with her perfect makeup and strong perfume, while constantly making them giggle as her eyebrow continues on in world of its own will take this seat again. Her margin might even hit the 25 per cent margin. Standing for Labor is Ella Waters, one of the strong contingent of young candidates at this election that both parties are giving exposure campaign process too.

Facts to impress your mates: Seat is named after Sir William Bragg, Proffessor of Physics at Adelaide University, who with his son Sir Lawrence Bragg win 1915 Nobel Prize for Physics. 

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 3- Labor 0

 

 

Bright:

The tightest seat in the state, Labor actually lost the first preference vote in 2010, getting home by just 167 votes after preference distribution.  Ironically for the name of the seat it has been the lack of brightness from the current member Minister for Transport Services, Chloe Fox that will see this seat change hands. Constant blunders from Fox have alienated her from the electorate and the seat will go to Marion Councillor David Spiers.

Facts to impress your mates: Bright had the biggest swing in the 2006 election, 14.4 per cent, but just two elections later, Chloe Fox is set to lose the seat.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 4- Labor 0

 

Chaffey:

Out near the fruit growing areas of Renmark, Berri and Loxton, for years this was the seat of controversial National MP Karlene Maywald who helped the Labor Party take government in the 2002 hung parliament. There was a 20 per cent swing to the Libs Tim Whetstone in 2010 and his margin will on increase in this Liberal heartland. Wonder if he has a bet with Vikki Chapman about who will end up with a bigger margin?

Facts to impress your mates: In 2010 Family First had more first preference votes than Labor.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 5 – Labor 0

 

 

 

Cheltenham:

This is the Premier’s seat. Jay Weatherill had a swing of 9 per cent against him in 2010, but still holds the seat by 16 per cent! He will win the seat and may even increase his margin now he is Premier. The voters may be forced to have a by-election because I doubt Jay will stay around if Labor get done. Up against him is a Uni student Jack Batty. Both parties like putting up young people that will shut up and won’t complain for more funds in seats they have no chance in.

Facts to impress your mates: The seat was previously known as Price, to honour South Australia’s first Labor Premier Tom Price.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 5 - Labor 1

 

Colton:

One of the seats that may decide if we end up with a minority government of the Liberal party wins in their own right.  Held by 4.0 percent after the last election, the redistributions have again killed the government, reducing the margin to 3.6 per cent. People like Paul Caica as a person, mum said he was awfully nice when he rang up on the phone, and Labor is putting a lot of effort into this seat. But Joe Barry his Liberal opponent is also presenting himself as the local knockabout bloke, a former businessman turned copper. They should have used a different photo on the Barry on the posters, he is a lot thinner than the photo suggests.

Facts impress your mates: A state wide poll had this seat at 50/50 just three weeks out from the election, the closest in the State.

Result: Labor to sandbag and hang on.

Liberal 5 – Labor 2

 

Croydon:

Michael Atkinson has been the member for 25 years in one of the safest seats for the Labor Party. He has been there during the highs and the lows of the Labor fortunes during that time, including being one of the few of his party to hold on to their seat at the 1994 election following the State Bank disaster. He causes controversy, but is loved among his electorate, being involved in many local issues as he goes around on his bicycle. Intelligent, witty and strange, one reason I want Labor to get back in is so Atkinson can stay on as Speaker and continue to chastise unruly members by quoting 13th century Westminster Statue.  An opponent of political posters on street poles he asks supporters to instead place them on their properties. So far I have seen one on a backstreet in Brompton when I got lost looking for my girlfriend’s house.

Glenda Nobel is standing for Liberal and her mature nature and solid background in business and politics might see her reduce Labor’s margin for the second election in a row.

Facts to impress your mates: Family First candidate Nkweto (NK) Nkamba was born and grew up in Zambia.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 5 - Labor 3

 

Davenport:

Another safe seat, where the party seat to lose has saved money by endorsing a young candidate who won’t ask for much extra money or support. In this case it’s the Labor party who have put up Lucie Lock-Weir to challenge Shadow treasure Iain Evans. Lock-Weir is a 19 uni student in the second year of a six year course at Flinders.  Lock-Weir might receive a few votes from some young guys who like the look of her, but Evans will increase the Liberals margin here.

Fact to impress your mates:  Talk about how despite this always being a safe Liberal seat, Evans’ father Stan a life time Liberal, won the seat as an independent against future Premier Dean Brown in 1986, after he lost the pre-selection battle with Brown.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 6 Labor 3

 

Dunstan:

Named after one of the most famous Labor premiers, ironically the seat is held by Liberal leader Steven Marshall. Generally who wins the seat wins government. The exception was last election, when Vinni Ciccarello had a 10 per cent swing against her to lose the seat to Marshall, but Labor hung on overall. Marshall is up against Jo Chapely for Labor, who is an expert in Aboriginal studies and speaks the Pitantatjara Aboriginal language.  Expect Marshall to increase the margin of 4.8 per cent to around 7.

Facts to impress your mates: Marshall won the Liberal leadership in just his first term as a parliamentarian. He is also from the Marshall family that makes Marshall Furniture.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 7- Labor 3.

 

Elder:

This is another seat where the redistribution has killed Labor, reducing their margin from 3.6 per cent, to 2 per cent.

Both sides have new candidates, with the retirement of ‘part-time Pat’ Conlon, who has been serving as a politician part time after he lost his spot in the Labor ministry when Jay Weatherill took over the leadership. You probably are thinking you have seen the new Labor candidate Annabel Digance on election posters before. You have, she twice contested and lost the Federal seat of Boothby in 2010 and 2013.  She is up against, a young vibrant Carolyn Habib. You cannot underestimate the importance of electoral posters; when asking an apolitical friend of mine what she thought of the election, she could not even tell me what seat she was in. However, after some tedious questioning, I managed to discover that she is in Elder, and that she is going to vote for Habib “because she is the pretty one right?” Never underestimate the importance of looks to win the swinging voter!

Whether it is as an episode of Next Top Model or because of polices, the Liberals will win this seat, to put them further on the road to victory.

Facts to impress your mates: The seat is named after Thomas Elder who arrived in Adelaide in 1854 and set up the wool broker company Elder Smith and Company.  He also donated large amounts of money to help establish Adelaide Uni.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 8- Labor 3.

 

Enfield:

A strong traditional working class strong hold for Labor, they have held the seat since its establishment in 1970. Attorney-General John Rau has been the member since 2002 when he defeated former Labor MP Ralph Clarke for pre-selection. Thirty-three year old bank executive and Prospect Councillor Scott Roberts is his Liberal opponent, but Roberts won’t be moving from local to state politics anytime soon.

Facts to impress your mates: Rau when the party endorsement from Rau only after a branch stacking controversy, which Clarke successfully fought through the courts, but still not gaining endorsement he stood unsuccessfully as an independent.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 8- Labor 4

 

Finniss:

This electorate in the south of the State covers Kangaroo Island, with sitting member Michael Pengilly having an office in Kingscote.

Unsurprisingly being a rural electorate with lots of farmers it is head by over 10 per cent by the Liberal Party. Melanie Smart is Labor Party’s sacrificial lamb.

Facts to impress your mates: Sitting member Michael Pengilly is a former Mayor of Kangaroo Island.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 9- Labor 4

 

Fisher:

Controversial independent Bob Such holds this seat that runs through the southern suburbs of Happy Valley, Aberfoyle Park and the like. Held it as a member of the Liberal Party from 1989 to 2000 and stood as an independent in 2002 loosing much of the primary vote but holding on with Labor preferences.  He increased his majority at both 2006 and 2010 and holds the seat now by 17 per cent. Sam Duluk is standing for the Liberal Party and Labor have put another young guy in a seat they are not going to win, Flinders University Accounting graduate Jake Neville.

Facts to impress your mates: A former Liberal Party member, Such as apart of Dean Brown’s Cabinet from 1994 to 1996.

Result: Independent Hold.

Liberal 9 – Labor 4, Independent 1

 

Flinders:

At 26.2 per cent the biggest margin of any seat in parliament, the seat covers most of the Eyre Peninsular including Port Lincoln and Ceduna. The Liberals took it from fellow conservatives the Nationals and Peter Treloar won it at the last time and will do so again in 2014. The Nationals are not putting up a candidate, but Matthew Deane is standing for Labor.

Facts to impress your mates: At 26.2 per cent the biggest margin of any seat held by either party.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 10 – Labor 4 – Independent 1.

 

Florey:

This is one of the seats that could fall to the Liberal Party and decide if it is a hung parliament of a Liberal majority. Helping the Labor chances is that Frances Bedford has been the sitting member since 1997. Bedford had a massive majority before the big swing to the Liberals in 2010. She is a popular local member having lived in the area for a long time and been a member of a range of local community groups. He opponent Damien Wyld is a smart, savvy young man but does not have local connection of his opponent. This is a tough one; can Labor sandbag the seat like they did in 2010? I just think the trend against the party is to big this time.

Facts to impress your mates: Family First candidate Richard Bunting has unsuccessfully consisted four different seats (Lee, Port Adelaide, Hindmarsh and Florey) at previous state and federal elections.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 11- Labor 4 Independent 1

 

 Frome:

One three seats held by independents. After years of being a swinging seat, it became safe Liberal in 2002 when then Premier Rob Kerin experienced an eight per cent swing. When Kerin retired from Parliament in 2009, causing a by-election, local councillor Geoff Broke decided to stand as an independent. Labor preferences saw him home and he increased that majority in 2010 and will win again, Locals Kendall Johnson and Marcus Connelly are standing for Liberal and Labor respectively.

Facts to impress your mates: Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith made a fool of himself in 2009, when he claimed the seat for the Liberal Party at the 2009 by-election seven days before the polls were finalised and the Liberals eventually lost out to Brock.

Result: Independent Hold.

Liberal 11 – Labor 4 – Independent 2.

 

Giles:

The only Labor seat outside of metropolitan Adelaide, it takes in Whyalla and the surrounding areas. Held by Lyn Bruer her retirement and the Liberals exposure that standing Labor candidate Eddie Hughes received a seven day suspended prison sentence in for assaulting a police officer, resisting arrest and loitering in 1983, will decrease their 12 per cent majority. They will still win despite coming up against a popular Whyalla local in Liberal candidate Brenadette Abraham.

Facts to impress your mates: Since 1993, the only seat Labor has held outside of greater metropolitan Adelaide.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 11 – Labor 5 – Independent 2.

 

Goyder:

In the area north of Adelaide taking in Yorke Peninsula, around the areas of Port Wakefield, Ardrossan, Yorketown and Maitland among others. Always in conservative hands, it became a very safe seat with a massive swing to the Liberals Steven Griffiths in 2010. Again the major party seat to lose is endorsing a token candidate, 20 year old former local girl Elyse Ramsay who is studying Media Law at Adelaide Uni. Help the poor girl out, she only has 86 twitter followers.

Facts to impress your mates: Nationals candidate Kim McWaters is one of just two of his party standing for lower house seats.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 12- Labor 5 Independent 2

 

Hammond:

This seat was held by rouge Liberal Peter Lewis from 1979 until 2006. A former member of the Liberal cabinet he was expelled from caucus in 2000 and having gained the seat again as an independent in 2002, reneged on a deal with the Liberal Party to help Labor form a minority government, taking on the role of speaker. He was finally removed from that position in 2005 when he made unsubstantiated claims that a government minister was involved with members of the police in a paedophile ring, support from Nationals member Karlyne Maywald allowing Labor to retain government. Lewis did not stand in 2006 and since then it has gone back to being a Liberal seat with a big majority to member Adrian Pederick.

Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union worker Lou Bailey is the Labor candidate and Rachel Titley is one of two National members running for a seat.

Facts to impress your mates: Juts give out every detail about how much of a freak Peter Lewis was/is.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 13 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

 

Hartley:

Out in the Campbelltown, Magill area it is held by Labor minister Grace Portolesi. She won by 2.3% at the last election, but again the redistribution has killed the government and the margin now is 0.1 per cent. It has generally been held by the government at the time and is like Colton and example of South Australian bellwether seat. Portolesi might have a bit of an advantage owning to her high profile as a minister, but with the big swing set to hit Labor, this is one of the important seats that will fall to the Liberals.

Facts to impress your mates: Both Portolesi and Liberal candidate Vincent Tarzia are of Italian decent, as was the former member Joe Scalzy and bout 10 per cent of voters were born in Italy. So just yell out “mamma mia!” whenever Hartley is mentioned in the telecast and if anyone gives you a strange look, explain the above.

Result: Liberal Gain.

Liberal 14 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

 

Heysen:

This Adelaide Hills electorate covers Mount Barker, Handorf, Stirling and Meadows among many others. It has always gone to the Libs, but the Australian Democrats always polled well, but don’t have any candidates anymore. It is held by former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond, with two more young candidates with no chance, Paul Yiallorous (Labor) and 19 year old Amy Park (Dignity for the Disabled).

Facts to impress your mates: Whenever anyone bags Yillorous about his age, just yell out “he is ok for a young kid, at least he doesn’t have Facebook!”

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 15 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

 

Karuna:

Down Christies Beach, Noarlunga way, we have a seat Labor seat. Or is it? At 8.8 per cent it would take less of a swing than those that took down both Jane Lomax-Smith and Vinni Ciccarello in 2010.  Retiring member, former Health minister John Hill also had a 14 per cent swing against him 2010, and with a less well known face, hoisting the Labor flag, a big swing against them is likely. Chris Picton was previously a member of Hill’s staff while the Liberals Ben Caudle is a software engineer. Former West Torrens footballer, Kym Richardson is standing as in independent. I think the Libs will win this one you know.

Facts to impress your mates: Haven’t got much interesting here, but could just stroke your beard and say that despite the margin you think the Libs might just win the seat.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 16 – Labor 5 – Independent 2.

 

Kavel:

This is another rural electorate that the Libs have a huge margin in. Those farmers really don’t like socialists! The seat has Lobethal, Gumeracha and Nairne among its major population centres and the current opposition margin is 15.8 per cent. Since its creation in 1970, it has always been a conservative seat and the Liberals Mark Goldsworthy will win a four term.

Facts to impress your mates: Was the seat of former Premier John Olsen when he came back to state politics from the Senate in 1990. Tom Playford the son of the long serving premier stood as independent in 2002 and as the Family First candidate in 2006. And finally a strong rumour is that the current Family First candidate Darryl Scott is actually Father Christmas.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

 

Lee:

The third seat where the Labor chances are hurt by a retiring member with a big profile, this time Michael Wright, who has represented the seat since 1997 and was a former member of Cabinet Heading out towards Semaphore way, it is one of the few seats where Labor get a slight advantage from the redistribution to have a margin of 7.6 per cent. The most congested of all the ballot papers with six candidates, the Liberal / Labor duopoly is affected by the standing of controversial Port Adelaide Enfield Mayor Gary Johanson who picked up 24.3 per cent of first pretence votes when he stood in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election. Labor candidate Stephen Mulligan is Jay Weatherill’s Deputy Chief of Staff and Liberal candidate Liz Davies was Liberal candidate for the Federal seat of Makin in 2010. Who is going to win it? I think Labor will hang on because the Johanson factor will make it difficult for the Libs to gain too much of a swing.

Facts to impress your mates: Liz Davies drove around in a car with pink batts during the 2010 Federal campaign to protest against the Government’s handling of the roof insulation scheme.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 6 – Independent 2.

 

Light:

Minister Tony Piccolo could be in trouble here, holding the seat by under three per cent. Based around Gawler and northern parts of Elizabeth and Munno Parra, but redistribution has again killed the government, cutting its majority in half. It was a conservative seat from 1938 until Piccolo won it in 2006 and he bucked the swing in 2010, holding on to help Labor continue in government. Cosie Costa, was the losing candidate in 2010 and I never like the chances of people having a second dip. I reckon the public feels you have had your chance and should step aside and give someone else ago. On that terrible logic alone, I am going for Piccolo to hold on somehow, but then again what do I know?

Facts to impress your mates: Tony Piccolo has the best side burns in state politics.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 7 – Independent 2

 

Little Parra:

One the two seats along with Ramsey that covers Elizabeth, Salisbury and Craigmore areas, it is a very safe Labor seat held by Lee Odenwalden with a margin of 11 per cent, the Labor party margin s increased by redistribution, but in a seat they would have won anyway.  A strong area of Labor heartland, the Libs actually put up a real candidate in Salisbury Councillor Damien Pilkington.

Facts to impress your mates: Sitting member Odenwaldon was born in London and migrated to Australia with his parents in 1981.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 8 – Independent 2

 

MacKilliop:

Mitch Williams won this seat as an Independent Liberal in 1997, beating controversial former leader Dale Baker before he re-joined the Liberal party the next year. One of the smallest ballot papers, with only three candidates, Labor and The Greens joining the Liberals in contesting the seat. Mitch will win with an even bigger majority.

Facts to impress your mates: Williams was deputy leader for two and half years under Isobel Redmond.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 18 – Labor 8 - Independent 2

 

Mawson:

This is a marginal Labor seat that is on the edge at this election. Labor’s cause is helped by the fact that the local member is a minister in Leon Bignell, in a seat which covers the outer suburbs of Hackham, Onkaparinga, Noarlunga and Seaford among others. A bellwether seat, the member for Mawson always sat on the Government side of the House from 1990 until 2002, when Robert Brokenshire held on for the Libs despite Labor forming government. Brokenshire lost to Bignell in 2006 and has since gone on to contest the seat as a member of Family First and now represents that Party in the Legislative Council. Mawson was one of just four seats to swing to Labor in 2010. Stephen Annells, a former agricultural marketer, will push Bignell close, but I think the Sports Minister will hold on.

Facts to impress your mates: Not much, but Greens candidate Katie Wright is worth looking at.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 18 – Labor 9 – Independent 2.

 

Mitchell:

One the big five that could drop to the Libs and end up deciding the election, it is currently held by first term MP Alan Sibbons with a margin of just 2.4 per cent. Based around, Sturt, Warradale, Dover Gardens and crossing over Main South Road into O’Halloran Hill, it is a traditional Labor seat. Held by Kris Hanna as a Labor member in 1997 and 2002, before resigning from the party, he won the seat in 2006 as Independent, before coming third to Sibbons in 2010. Liberals candidate is former Ten Sports reporter Corey Wingard, who was made redundant by the station when they lost the rights to broadcast the AFL. His profile will boost him up, but Hanna’s preferences will flow to Sibbons. Another to buck the trend? No I think the general trend to Liberal will be repeated here and a one stalwart Labor seat will fall in to conservative hands.

Facts to impress your mates: Kris Hanna joined The Greens for less than six months in 2003 before deciding to run as an Independent in 2006.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 19 – Labor 9 - Independent 2.

 

Morialta:

Always a slight Liberal seat, covering, Paradise, Dernancourt, Athelstone and Newton it also heads up to the hills around Cuddle Creek. Labor won it in the ‘Rannslide’ of 2006, but it had an amazing swing of 11 per cent back to the Liberals John Gardiner in 2010. Again this is a seat where the redistribution helps Labor but won’t actually help their chances. I can see a further above average swing to the Libs John Gardiner and he will have an easy win over opponent Clare Scriven.

Facts to impress your mates: Gardiner is current Opposition Whip.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 20 - Labor 9 - Independent 2

 

Morphett:

Situated in Glenelg and surrounding suburbs it is a safe Liberal seat held by Doctor Duncan McFetridge since 2002 and has been held by the Liberals since 1979. His Labor opponent Tim Looker is a Holdfast Bay Councillor and having his third crack at beating McFetridge. I suppose the Labor hierarchy know they are not going to win it whoever they put up, so if Looker wants to keep and trying and losing I suppose they say all the best to him.

Facts to impress your mates: Greens candidate Matthew Carey is son of famous Sturt footballer Peter Carey and has been blind since birth.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 21 - Labor 9 - Independent 2

 

Mount Gambier:

A Labor seat up until the 70s, it was held by Rory McEwen as Independent from 1997 until 2010, McEwen only standing as an Independent after he was beaten for Liberal Party pre selection. He retired in 2010 and the seat was expected to go back to the Lib’s but was won by another Independent, local Mayor Don Pegler on the back of Labor preferences. Pegler was well behind on first preference votes in 2010, and with another swing expected to the Liberal party, I expect he will fall to the Liberals Troy Bell.

Facts to impress your mates: Labor candidate Jim Maher stood the party in 2002 and his wife Viv was the Labor candidate in 2010. Must have some strong ideology because surely by now they know they are not going to win.

Result: Liberal Gain.

Liberal 22 - Labor 9 - Independent 2

 

Napier:

Minister Michael O’Brien does not want to spend four years in opposition and like many of his counterparts is retiring at this election. But he leaves behind a very safe Labor seat in the Party’s heartland areas around Smithfield, Elizabeth Downs, Munno Parra and Blakeview. O’Brien’s retirement has led to factional controversy, with Senator, and member of the Party’s right, Don Farrell putting up his hand to contest the seat. Farrell’s announcement had Premier and member of the Left faction Jay Weatherill threatening to quit, and Labor eventually choice a local candidate in unionist John Gee. Gee will beat off his opponents including Liberal Party candidate Robert Leggatt.

Facts to impress your mates: Watch out for controversy after the election over who is to be Labor leader in opposition. The Right are annoyed that they give Left member Weatherill the Premiership, but received nothing in return by the blocking of Farrell.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 22 - Labor 10 - Independent 2

 

Newland:

Another seat that crosses from strong Labor territory of the outer suburbs, to the Liberal heartland of the Adelaide Hills, taking in Banksia Park, Tea Tree Gully, Ridgehaven and parts of Hope Valley, while also taking in the hills areas of Houghton and Inglewood among others.

Labor do get a boost here, with an increase from 2.2 to 2.6 percent with redistribution, but Minister Tom Kenyon was lucky to hold on last time and I think he will be making a return to the rugby field for Adelaide University after Saturday, when the Liberals Glen Docherty, who has been a Playford Councillor since he was 19 makes his way into State Parliament.

Facts to impress your mates: The seat is named after Simpson Newland who was a member of a pioneer family and wrote the book “Paving the Way.”

Result: Liberal Gain.

Liberal 23 - Labor 10 - Independent 2

 

Playford:

Takes in Parra Hills, Ingle Farm, Gepps Cross and other nearby suburbs and at 14.7 per cent Minister Jack Snelling has one of the biggest Labor margins in the state in a seat ironically named after the long serving Country League Premier Sir Thomas Playford who lead the state for a record 28 years. Michael Santagata is the Liberal candidate.

Facts to impress your mates: Jack Snelling was just 24 when elected in 1997.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 23 -  Labor 11 - Independent 2.

 

Port Adelaide:

Susan Close won this seat in a by-election after controversial Treasure Kevin Foley, retried in 2011. Young Salisbury Councillor Brad Vermeer is her Liberal opponent.

Facts to impress your mates: Family First candidate Bruce Hambour contested the seat in 2010 and has stood for election in the Federal seat of Port Adelaide at the last three Federal elections. One question. Why?

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 23 – Labor 12 Independent 2.

 

Ramsay:

On the northern border of Port Adelaide, Ramsay is another safe Labor seat, held by Zoe Bettison who it at a by-election following the resignation of former Premier Mike Rann. It has hit the front the page of the Advertiser during the campaign after Liberal candidate Anthony Antoniadis made Facebook comments about the residents of the electorate, saying they smelt, were more interested in gambling than looking after their children, were not willing to work and were criminals. Despite calls for the government to have Antoniadis dis endorsed by the Liberals, Steven Marshall, while rebuking the comments unsurprisingly stood by him. The underlying fact is it would cost the Party to much time and money to find a new candidate and reprint posters and campaign material in seat even Marshall admitted on ABC Radio ‘we are not going to win.’

Facts to impress your mates: With the comments of Antoniadis, I would stand around, again stroking my beard saying, ‘this might be one of the few seats with a swing to Labor.’ If participating in an election drinking game, any mention of the Facebook tirade by any of the commentators should be worth two fingers.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 23 - Labor 13 - Independent 2

 

Reynell:

Sitting Labor member Gay Thompson is retiring after holding this southern suburbs seat since 1997.  There should be a swing against new Labor candidate Katrine Hildyard to Liberal candidate Heidi Greaves, but not enough for Labor to lose the seat.

Facts to impress your mates: Labor candidate Hildyard got caught out early in the campaign, when she sent party workers down various streets when campaigning to check if people were home and would like to meet the candidate. The ‘sorry we missed you notes’ were all signed with the name Katrine Hildyard, and the several obviously different samples of handwriting was pounced on by the Libs.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberals 23 - Labor 14 - Independent 2

 

Schubert:

Long serving MP Ivan Venning is retiring from this safe Liberal seat in the Barossa Valley. New candidate is manager of Barossa Fine Foods Stephan Knoll, while Labor has picked another Uni student in a seat they are going to lose in Adam Slobodian.

Facts to impress your mates: Retiring MP Venning is the only person to have represented this electorate since its creation in 1993.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 24 - Labor 14 - Independent 2

 

Stuart:

A wide electorate which covers Wipena Pound, the Flinders Ranges and Oodnadatta Track, with the main population centre in Port Augusta and other towns including Orroroo, Peterborough, Jamestown Burra and Morgan, it is a very conservative electorate. The seat was held by Peter Gunn for 40 years until his retirement in 2010 and current Liberal Dan Van Holst Pellekaan (try saying that 20 times fast) has a margin of 7.6 per cent. Van Holst Pellekaan’s opponent is young Port Augusta local Josh Vines.

Facts to impress your mates: Stuart is the second biggest electorate in the state and mobile polling booths are the only way for some rural constitutes to exercise their vote.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 25 - Labor14 - Independent 2

 

Taylor:

Another northern suburbs safe Labor seat, Taylor covers the Defence Force facility at Edinburgh, as well as parts of Burton, Paralowie, Salisbury and Elizabeth South.  Leesa Vlahos holds the seat by 12.6 per cent and her Liberal opponent, Alex Hyde is the current President of the South Australian Young Liberals. 

Facts to impress your mates:  The seat that was held by former Premier Lynn Arnold was one of the 10 Labor won at the 1994 election debacle.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 25 - Labor 15 - Independent 2

 

Torrens:

On the northern bank of the River Torrens, this seat covers Klemzig, Oakden, Northgate, Windsor Garden and Holden Hill as well as other local areas. Redistribution actually helps the Government, pushing the margin from 7.8 to 8.2 per cent and they may need it. They was a big swing last time and Family First also gained a large number of first preference votes, with their preferences heading to the Liberals.  Labor is also hurt that the long-time local member Robyn Geraghty is retiring, and voters will be faced with two fresh faces. For Labor it is Dana Wortley, a former teacher and journalist and for the Liberals Michael Manetta. Manetta will be hurt by the exposure that he had a drink driving conviction in 1998, his blood alcohol reading 0.159. In the basis of the big swings against Labor (despite that fact that I have called for Labor to hold onto some closer seats) I will go out on a limb and call this one for Liberal.

Facts to impress your mates: Dana Wortley is the wife of upper house MP Russell Wortley and is former Labor Senator for South Australia.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 26 - Labor 15 - Independent 2

 

Unley:

In the leafy rich suburbs just south of the city, including Goodwood, Glenside, Fullerton and Unley among others, it is unsurprisingly a safe Liberal seat held by shadow minister David Pisoni. It has had long periods of dominance for each side of politics the Liberals holding it from 1938 to 1962, Labor from ’62 until 1993 and Liberal since then. Pisoni is a former managing director of his own business while his opponent Lara Golding is a High School teacher. Libs to increase their 12 per cent margin.

Facts to impress your mates:  At the 1973 election local activists, upset at the quality of the candidates, nominated Susie Creamcheese on behalf of the Happy Birthday Party. Ms Creamcheese won 6 per cent of the primary vote.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 27 - Labor 15 -  Independents 2

 

Waite:

Containing affluent suburbs such as Belair, Daw Park, Hawthorn and Mitcham among others, it is held by Shadow Minister and former opposition leader Martin Hamilton-Smith by a massive margin. This is the one time I would like the secret ballot removed. Hamilton-Smith’s Labor opponent is the rather ravishing Rebekah Huppatz, and it would be great to know how many men under 30 suddenly vote Labor! Huppatz has caused some consternation during the campaign, not being seen much in the electorate as she continues to work in her full time role in the office of Federal MP Amanda Risworth in Canberra.

Facts to impress to your mates: This seat in its former incarnation as Mitchell was the only electorate that the Australian Democrats ever elected a member.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 28 - Labor 15 - Independents 2

 

West Torrens:

Held by Tom ‘fully sick Greek’ Koutsantonis, Minister for Transport and Infrastructure, Minster for Mineral Resources and Energy, and Minister for Housing and Urban Development as well as all things Fully Sick, since 1997.  It covers the suburbs that lie between the Parklands in the east and the Airport in the West. Serge ‘Vodka’ Ambrose his Russian Liberal opponent should be given a 1000 vote head start just because he has a cool name like Serge. But he will not win, his task of overturning 12 per cent made more difficult by Family First directing their preferences towards Labor.

Facts to impress your mates: Just start playing ‘Zorba the Greek’ and tell everyone how you are getting a new subwoofer installed in your car.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 28 - Labor 16 - independents 2.

 

Wright:

This seat covers the outer northern suburbs of Salisbury East, Gulfview Heights, Wynn Vale, Greenwith and Golden Grove and is easily held by Labor Minister Jennifer Rankine. Tax accountant Lyn Petrie is the Liberal candidate one of five on the ballot paper.

Facts to impress your mates: Independent Child Protection Education candidate Danyse Soester was on the governing council of a western suburbs school while a child sexual assault took place during Jay Weatherill’s time as Education Minister. Soester’s belief of a cover up of the incident lead to the establishment of the Dobell inquiry.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 28 – Labor 17 – Independent 2.